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基于多维融合特征提取和深度学习网络的短期负荷预测方法

Short-term Load Forecasting Method Based on Multi-dimensional Feature Fusion and Deep Learning Network

  • 摘要: 传统的短期负荷预测方法未考虑节假日、用户端用电行为习惯等因素,导致负荷预测精度不高。为此,文章提出一种基于多维融合特征和深度学习网络的短期负荷预测优化方法,采用Prophet算法提取不同时间变量的用电负荷特征分量,结合天气数据进行基于注意力机制的融合特征重构,并采用CNN-GRU模型对融合特征进行训练,获得未来短期负荷预测值。实验结果表明,该方法能够有效提高短期用电负荷的预测精度,为电力系统后续调度工作提供支撑。

     

    Abstract: Traditional short-term load forecasting methods do not consider factors such as holidays and users' electricity consumption habits, which result in low load forecasting accuracy. To address this issue, this paper proposes an optimized short-term load forecasting method based on multi-dimensional feature fusion and deep learning network. Firstly, the Prophet algorithm is used to extract load characteristic components from different time variables, and the fusion feature reconstruction based on the attention mechanism is carried out in combination with weather data. Then, a CNN-GRU model is used to train the fused features and obtains future short-term load forecasting values. Experimental results show that this method can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy of short-term load, which provides a support for the subsequent dispatching work of power system.

     

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