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基于BiLSTM和多头注意力机制的超短期电力负荷预测

Ultra-short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on Multi-head Attention Mechanism and BiLSTM

  • 摘要: 超短期电力负荷预测通过对未来数十分钟到数小时的电力负荷进行准确预测,帮助电力系统实现合理调度和优化运行,确保电力供应与需求平衡。这对于提高电网运行效率、降低成本、减少能源浪费具有重要意义。然而面对非线性较强、变化速度较快的超短期电力负荷时,传统的预测方法精度相对较低。为此,文章提出一种基于BiLSTM和多头注意力机制的神经网络模型的超短期电力负荷预测方法。采用某地区的电力负荷公开数据集验证了模型的精确性和鲁棒性。通过与传统的LSTM和BiLSTM模型的性能对比,证明了文章所提出的网络模型在超短期电力负荷预测中的优越性。

     

    Abstract: Ultra-short-term power load forecasting helps the power system to achieve reasonable dispatch and optimized operation and ensure the balance between power supply and demand by accurately predicting the power load in the next tens of minutes to hours. This is of great significance for improving the efficiency of power grid operation, reducing costs and reducing energy waste. However, when faced with ultra-short-term power loads with strong nonlinearity and fast changes, the accuracy of traditional forecasting methods is relatively low. To this end, this paper proposes an ultra-short-term power load forecasting method based on a multi-head attention mechanism and a BiLSTM neural network model. The accuracy and robustness of the model are verified using a public data set of power loads in a certain region. By the performance comparison with the traditional LSTM and BiLSTM models, the superiority of the network model proposed in this paper in ultra-short-term power load forecasting is proved.

     

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