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基于大数据的衢州市台区负荷与气象关系的研究

Research on the Relationship between Load and Meteorology in Quzhou City Based on Big Data

  • 摘要: 文章研究探索衢州市台区负荷与气象要素之间的关联性,并开发相应的数字化管理手段,以提高电力系统的安全和经济运行。研究背景基于全球气候变暖导致的极端天气事件频发,这些事件对电力系统造成了显著影响。研究方法涉及多源数据融合,包括电力数据和气象数据,并通过数据预处理来处理异常值和缺失值。在算法与模型设计方面,采用了LightGBM算法,模型训练采用了5折交叉验证法和早停法,并结合贝叶斯方法进行调优。研究成果显示,台区负荷与温度存在“马鞍型”关联,即在过高或过低的温度区间内,负荷达到高峰;风速对负荷的影响主要在冬季显著,而天气类型与负荷分布也存在一定的关联。基于这些发现建立大数据模型,并通过模型预测和预警监测,有效减少了衢州市2024年春节期间的台区重过载次数。

     

    Abstract: The aim of this project is to study and explore the correlation between the load and meteorological factors in Quzhou City, and to develop corresponding digital management methods to improve the safety and economic operation of the power system. The research background is based on the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events caused by global climate change, which have had a significant impact on the power system, especially in the Quzhou area. The research method involves multi-source data fusion, including electricity data and meteorological data, and handles outliers and missing values through data preprocessing. In terms of algorithm and model design, the LightGBM algorithm was adopted, and the model was trained using 5-fold cross validation and early stop methods, combined with Bayesian methods for optimization. The research results show that there is a saddle shaped correlation between the load and temperature in the substation area, that is, the load reaches its peak in the temperature range of too high or too low. The impact of wind speed on load is mainly significant in winter, and there is also a certain correlation between weather type and load distribution. Based on these findings, a big data model was established, and through model prediction and early warning monitoring, the number of heavy overloads in the platform area during the Spring Festival in 2024 is effectively reduced.

     

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